Yanditswe na: NDAYISENGA Clement
28/08/2026 10:12
Intambara hagati ya Iran n’Amerika iragenda ihinduka intambara yo gushimirana no kunaniza impande zombi, aho nta kimenyetso kigaragaza ko ubutegetsi bwa Tehran bugiye kugwa cyangwa ko Washington igiye kubona intsinzi idashidikanywaho. Hagati aho, ubukungu bw’ibihugu byo mu kigobe cy’Abarabu bukomeje guhura n’akaga n’ukudashidikanya.
Abasesenguzi benshi bahuriza ku kuba intambara yatangijwe na Amerika na Israel kuri Iran itazarangira ubutegetsi bwa Tehran buhiritswe cyangwa Washington ikabona intsinzi yuzuye. Ahubwo bashobora guhangana igihe kirekire, intambara ikagenda icogora ariko igakomeza guteza igihombo ku mpande zombi.
Intambara yatangiye ku wa 28 Gashyantare 2026, nyuma y’ibitero bitunguranye byagabwe na Israel na Amerika kuri Iran. Ku ikubitiro, abayobozi ba Amerika bari bizeye ko igitutu gikomeye ku bukungu n’igisirikare cya Iran cyari gutuma Tehran ihindura imikorere yayo ku buryo bwimbitse.
Ariko nyuma y’amezi atandatu, biragaragara ko iyo ntego itagezweho, ndetse ibihugu byinshi biri kwitegura intambara ishobora kumara igihe kirekire n’ingaruka zayo.
Ibibazo byiyongereye cyane nyuma y’uko urujya n’uruza rw’amato mu kigobe cya Hormuz (Gulf of Hormuz) rugabanutse cyane, bitewe n’ibitero bya Iran ku mato atwara imizigo ndetse n’igota ryashyizwe ku byambu bya Iran na Amerika. Ibi byateje ihungabana mu itangwa ry’ibikomoka kuri peteroli n’ibindi bicuruzwa.
Igisirikare cya Amerika kiracyari muri aka karere, ubu kakaba karushijeho kugira ibikorwa bya gisirikare byinshi kurusha mu myaka ishize. Nubwo ubukana bw’intambara bwagabanutse nyuma y’uko Washington na Tehran basinyanye amasezerano (Memorandum of Understanding (MoU)) muri Kamena 2026, nta kimenyetso gihamya ko intambara iri hafi kurangira.
Ibihugu byo mu Kigobe bihura n’ibibazo bishya
Amakimbirane yari asanzwe ahari, harimo ayahanganishaga umutwe w'Aba-Houthi na Saudi Arabia muri Yemen, ashobora kurushaho gukomera uko intambara ikomeza.
Hagati aho, ibihugu nka Ubuhinde n’u Bushinwa bikomeje gushaka kugira uruhare runini muri aka karere. U Bushinwa bumaze kugira umwanya ukomeye mu Burasirazuba bwo Hagati (Middle East) n'Afurika y'Amajyaruguru (North Africa) binyuze muri gahunda ya Belt and Road Initiative.
Ibi byose bigaragaza ko akarere gakomeje guhinduka, kandi ko kugira amasezerano y’ubufatanye n’ibihugu bikomeye byo hanze bitagihagije kugira ngo igihugu cyizere umutekano wacyo.
Amasezerano y’ubwirinzi aherutse gusinywa hagati ya Türkiye, Pakistan na Saudi Arabia i Mecca ashobora kuba intangiriro y’andi masezerano menshi y’ubufatanye mu bya gisirikare hagati y’ibihugu byo muri aka karere.
Sanam Vakil, uyobora gahunda yiga ku Burasirazuba bwo Hagati na Afurika y’Amajyaruguru muri Chatham House, yavuze ko intambara yihutishije impinduka zari zisanzwe zitangiye.
Yagize ati: “Intambara yihutishije inzira zari zisanzweho, ariko ntabwo yatangije ikintu kitari gisanzwe kiri gukorwa. Ibihugu byo mu Kigobe byari bisanzwe bishaka gutandukanya ubukungu bwabyo n’umutungo wa peteroli.”
Yongeyeho ko byinshi muri byo byari bisanzwe bishaka kwagura ubufatanye bwabyo mu by’ingabo birenze ingwate z’umutekano byahabwaga na Amerika, ndetse no kongera ubushobozi bwabyo bwo kwirwanaho.
Israel iracyashaka kugira ububasha mu karere
Ku ruhande rwa Israel, HA Hellyer wo muri Royal United Services Institute yavuze ko iki gihugu kigikomeje umushinga wo gushaka kugira ububasha bukomeye mu karere, nubwo kitashoboye gutsikamira Iran muri uyu mwaka.
Hellyer yagize ati: “Nta mahirwe ahari ko ubutegetsi bwa Tehran buzagwa mu mezi atandatu ari imbere.”
Yavuze ko mu gihe igitutu cy’ubukungu cyakomeza uko kiri, mu gihe kirekire gishobora guteza impinduka zikwirakwira zigatuma ubutegetsi bwa Iran busenyuka, ariko ko ibyo bishobora gufata imyaka, atari amezi.
Ubukungu bw’ibihugu byo mu Kigobe buri mu kaga
Guhagarara cyangwa kugabanuka cyane kw’ingendo muri Hormuz, hamwe n’ibitero ku Mijyi yo muri aka karere, byabangamiye gahunda ibihugu byo mu Kigobe byari bifite zo gukoresha amafaranga ava muri peteroli mu guteza imbere indi mirimo y’ubukungu no kwiyubakira izina nk’ahantu hizewe ku bashoramari.
Kuva Amerika na Israel bitangira ibitero kuri Iran muri Gashyantare, ubwikorezi bwa peteroli, ibikomoka kuri peteroli na gaz naturel itwarwa mu mato (LNG) bwagiye buhura n’ihungabana rikomeye kandi risubiramo.
Naho urujya n’uruza muri Bab al-Mandeb Strait, rwari rwaramaze kuba ruteje akaga kubera ibitero bya Houthis ku mato mu gihe cy’intambara ya Gaza, rwabaye rubi kurushaho muri Nyakanga, ubwo Houthis bafitanye isano na Iran batangazaga igota ryo mu mazi kuri Saudi Arabia.
John Sfakianakis, impuguke nkuru mu by’ubukungu muri Gulf Research Center, yavuze ko izamuka ry’igiciro cya peteroli rijyanye n’ingorane ibihugu byo mu Kigobe bifite mu kuyohereza hanze.
Yagize ati: “Ese ibi bizamara andi mezi atandatu? Cyangwa bizakomeza igihe kirenzeho?”
Ikindi kibazo ni uko nubwo igiciro cya peteroli cyazamutse, ibiciro by’ibicuruzwa na byo byazamutse. Usibye ibibazo by’ubukungu intambara yateje, ibihugu byo mu Kigobe birimo gushyirwaho igitutu cyo kongera amafaranga bishora mu bijyanye n’ubwirinzi n’umutekano.
Kugeza ubu, ibihugu byinshi byisanze hagati y’aya makimbirane birashaka uburyo bwo kubana n’akaduruvayo no gucunga ingaruka z’intambara, mu gihe nta kimenyetso cy’uko ikibazo kiri hafi gukemuka.
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